Cheltenham firm predicts how 2025 Autumn Budget may affect Gloucestershire

While many key predictions have been brought to light already – especially the controversy around inheritance tax (IHT) and what it means for farmers – there are still many points up for discussion in the lead up to the autumn 2025 budget announcement.

Cheltenham-based Bishop Fleming has sifted through the predictions to pick out some of the key points that could affect both Gloucestershire residents and businesses.

Income tax rises in the Autumn Budget 2025

The chancellor has made clear that taxes will rise in the Autumn Budget to fund increased government spending on defence, net zero projects and welfare and to plug the 'widening fiscal black hole of £50 billion'.

Zoe Martin, tax partner at Bishop Fleming, said: 'The chancellor has to navigate the difficult task of stimulating the UK economy while paying for growing public spending, staying within her own loose borrowing rules and keeping promises on personal tax.

'Last year's Autumn Budget raised £40 billion of tax from National Insurance, CGT, IHT and non-doms – and those rises are likely to be compounded this time with more taxes through stealth and also on wealth.'

A key possibility is a rise of 1p or 2p in the basic rate of income tax, which would be the 'first such rise in the main rate since 1975, when Denis Healey was chancellor and the basic rate of income tax became 35 per cent'.

Mansion tax for expensive properties in the Autumn Budget 2025

Zoe notes that there has also been the re-emergence of discussions about a so-called 'Mansion Tax', possibly in the form of a capital tax gains (CGT) charge on homes worth over a certain value, limiting the existing main residence exemption. 

Zoe said: 'Or, this Mansion Tax may take the form of, say, a one per cent levy on the portion of a property’s value exceeding £2 million. So, for example, owners of a £3 million property would have an annual tax bill of £10,000 (though, presumably, the size of any mortgage on the property would be a factor).'

National Insurance for landlords in the Autumn Budget 2025

In addition to the forthcoming Renters' Rights Bill that will make it harder for landlords to evict tenants, there is now speculation that rental income could be subject to National Insurance.

While experts aren't sure how this would be collected, Zoe says that a 'downside of imposing National Insurance on landlords will be the likely scenario of such costs being passed on to tenants in higher rents.'

Cash ISAs savings limit reduction in the Autumn Budget 2025

Bishop Fleming shares that there is speculation that the cash ISA allowance could be cut from £20,000 to as little as £10,000 or even £4,000 to drive more investment into UK-listed shares.  

Back in July 2025, the chancellor dismissed plans to reduce the ISA allowance but apparently such a move is now 'back on the table for consideration following reported pressure from banks who want to see more investment in stocks and shares ISAs.'

Stocks and shares ISA to require minimum UK shareholding in the Autumn Budget 2025

Zoe added: 'There is also speculation that the chancellor may tamper with stocks and shares ISAs to stipulate a certain percentage holding of UK shares in the ISA to retain its tax-free status (similar to the previous government's proposal of a British ISA). 

'Various figures have been suggested, such as 25 per cent or even 50 per cent UK shares held in the ISA. But if this were so, stocks and shares ISAs could lose their savings appeal as any tax saving may be wiped out by lower returns on investment. It is also not clear how one would define what a UK share is when so many listed companies have substantial overseas operations.'

National Minimum / Living Wage to rise again in the Autumn Budget 2025

According to Bishop Fleming, the chancellor is expected to announce 'another major rise in the National Minimum / Living Wage from Wednesday 1 April 2026'.  

Zoe said: 'The Low Pay Commission has suggested that the National Living Wage (NLW), payable to those aged 21 and over, should rise from £12.21 to a maximum of £12.86 (a 5.3 per cent increase).

'The chancellor has previously stated that she would like over time to extend the NLW to those under the age of 21 – to as low as 18 year olds. This forthcoming budget could see some movement in that direction.'

To speak to Bishop Fleming about how the budget could affect you, register to attend its post-budget event on Thursday 27 November 2025 from 8am at Cheltenham Racecourse. 

Visit forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage to book a space.